Okay, as of 8:25 PM EST I believe Atlanta will pick fourth overall if Indianapolis wins, and flip a coin with Oakland for the fourth pick if Tennessee wins.
The top 3 pickers are:
1. Miami
2. St. Louis
3. KC (lowest OWP of 4 win teams)
The Jets pick 6th in the event of a Tennessee win, and would flip with Oakland for the 5th pick in the event of an Indianapolis victory.
Full Version: Atlanta picks 3rd.
crap.
I was wrong. I made an assumption and it bit me in the ass. Kansas City started the weekend with a five game lead in the opponent win department. Considering, there are only 16 games to be played, I assumed it was insurmountable when I was calculating and gave the 3rd pick to them based on that.
I was wrong. Regardless of how the game finishes tonight, Kansas City's opponents finish the weekend with a record of 10-6. Atlanta's opponents finished 5-11. Five games difference, so it's a tie.
WHat's great about this is that it ensures that either three or four teams will be tied in opponent win percentage for the THIRD pick. This means that regardless of the outcome of tonight's game, divisional record comes into play as the league's second tie-breaker in these matters.
Atlanta is the only team to have just one divisional win, so despite starting the weekend in 4th position and winning, Atlanta finishes the 2007 season as the team who'll pick THIRD OVERALL in April.
Due to the tie-breaker there will be a rotation that occurs during later rounds, but who cares 3rd overall is the prize. If we pick 4th in the 2nd, I'll gladly make that sacrifice.
I was wrong. I made an assumption and it bit me in the ass. Kansas City started the weekend with a five game lead in the opponent win department. Considering, there are only 16 games to be played, I assumed it was insurmountable when I was calculating and gave the 3rd pick to them based on that.
I was wrong. Regardless of how the game finishes tonight, Kansas City's opponents finish the weekend with a record of 10-6. Atlanta's opponents finished 5-11. Five games difference, so it's a tie.
WHat's great about this is that it ensures that either three or four teams will be tied in opponent win percentage for the THIRD pick. This means that regardless of the outcome of tonight's game, divisional record comes into play as the league's second tie-breaker in these matters.
Atlanta is the only team to have just one divisional win, so despite starting the weekend in 4th position and winning, Atlanta finishes the 2007 season as the team who'll pick THIRD OVERALL in April.
Due to the tie-breaker there will be a rotation that occurs during later rounds, but who cares 3rd overall is the prize. If we pick 4th in the 2nd, I'll gladly make that sacrifice.
Pick Brohm. Look at what Redman, ur Louisville QB, did to Seattle in the last game. 
Obviously that was a fluke, but hey. U need a QB, and Brohm is the best avaliable, IMO.
Obviously that was a fluke, but hey. U need a QB, and Brohm is the best avaliable, IMO.
QUOTE (bipolarboy @ Dec 30 2007, 8:30:56 PM) 
Okay, as of 8:25 PM EST I believe Atlanta will pick fourth overall if Indianapolis wins, and flip a coin with Oakland for the fourth pick if Tennessee wins.
The top 3 pickers are:
1. Miami
2. St. Louis
3. KC (lowest OWP of 4 win teams)
The Jets pick 6th in the event of a Tennessee win, and would flip with Oakland for the 5th pick in the event of an Indianapolis victory.
The top 3 pickers are:
1. Miami
2. St. Louis
3. KC (lowest OWP of 4 win teams)
The Jets pick 6th in the event of a Tennessee win, and would flip with Oakland for the 5th pick in the event of an Indianapolis victory.
Four teams -- the Falcons, Raiders, Chiefs, and Jets -- have 4-12 records.
The Jets fell out of the mix first, because their strength of schedule was 0.523, based on the fact that the Jets' opponents were a combined 134-122 on the season.
The Falcons, Raiders, and Chiefs had identical strength of schedule -- 0.516, based on a combined opponents' record of 132-124. S
Because the Raiders finished fourth in the AFC West behind the Chiefs (due to their record in common games), the Raiders will pick higher than the Chiefs. So the Falcons and Raiders will flip first. If the Raiders lose the toss, the Falcons will draft third, the Raiders will draft fourth, and the Chiefs will draft fifth.
If the Raiders win the toss, they'll draft third and then the Falcons and the Chiefs will have a coin toss for the fourth pick.
QUOTE (nyyjones @ Dec 31 2007, 8:57:41 PM)
Four teams -- the Falcons, Raiders, Chiefs, and Jets -- have 4-12 records.
The Jets fell out of the mix first, because their strength of schedule was 0.523, based on the fact that the Jets' opponents were a combined 134-122 on the season.
The Falcons, Raiders, and Chiefs had identical strength of schedule -- 0.516, based on a combined opponents' record of 132-124. S
Because the Raiders finished fourth in the AFC West behind the Chiefs (due to their record in common games), the Raiders will pick higher than the Chiefs. So the Falcons and Raiders will flip first. If the Raiders lose the toss, the Falcons will draft third, the Raiders will draft fourth, and the Chiefs will draft fifth.
If the Raiders win the toss, they'll draft third and then the Falcons and the Chiefs will have a coin toss for the fourth pick.
The Jets fell out of the mix first, because their strength of schedule was 0.523, based on the fact that the Jets' opponents were a combined 134-122 on the season.
The Falcons, Raiders, and Chiefs had identical strength of schedule -- 0.516, based on a combined opponents' record of 132-124. S
Because the Raiders finished fourth in the AFC West behind the Chiefs (due to their record in common games), the Raiders will pick higher than the Chiefs. So the Falcons and Raiders will flip first. If the Raiders lose the toss, the Falcons will draft third, the Raiders will draft fourth, and the Chiefs will draft fifth.
If the Raiders win the toss, they'll draft third and then the Falcons and the Chiefs will have a coin toss for the fourth pick.
This is the same situation that occured between Cleveland and Tampa Bay last year, except minus the 3rd team. Cleveland won the coin toss, picked Joe Thomas with the 3rd pick, and Tampa picked Gaines Adams. The coin flip probably didn't make a difference considering that Tampa Bay would've probably picked Adams at 3rd either way. It's funny that those two teams had a coin flip for the 3rd pick last year, and this year the Browns went 10-6 and the Bucs went 9-7, winning their division.
QUOTE (PackersPwnage @ Jan 1 2008, 5:04:00 PM)
This is the same situation that occured between Cleveland and Tampa Bay last year, except minus the 3rd team. Cleveland won the coin toss, picked Joe Thomas with the 3rd pick, and Tampa picked Gaines Adams. The coin flip probably didn't make a difference considering that Tampa Bay would've probably picked Adams at 3rd either way. It's funny that those two teams had a coin flip for the 3rd pick last year, and this year the Browns went 10-6 and the Bucs went 9-7, winning their division.
Atlanta's lost two coin tosses to Cleveland within the last decade. The coin toss is nothing new. It is stupid, but then they flip a coin to break ties in games... I mean, decide who gets the ball first in overtime, so why wouldn't they flip a coin to decide something as crucial as draft order. It makes almost as much sense as the BCS.
This is a "lo-fi" version of our main content. To view the full version with more information, formatting and images, please click here.