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mono6413
I saw today that the Dolphins released 9 players. Although some of the guys cut contibuted we need to build for the future. We need a roster overhaul and sometimes you need to let go of the past before you can move forward. I am excited about the new management team.
gpngc
QUOTE (mono6413 @ Feb 11 2008, 5:34:43 PM) *
I saw today that the Dolphins released 9 players. Although some of the guys cut contibuted we need to build for the future. We need a roster overhaul and sometimes you need to let go of the past before you can move forward. I am excited about the new management team.


This is going to be a whole new team.

Welcome to the site mono, what are your thoughts on the future of John Beck?
norton3476
I think that you have to give Beck another year before deciding.
nyyjones
QUOTE (norton3476 @ Feb 11 2008, 7:37:00 PM) *
I think that you have to give Beck another year before deciding.

I don't think he gets it. If he does get another year, it'll be on the bench, and likely more than a year there if he stays with the Fins. IMO, they bring in a ton of QBs in the off-season for tryouts. There are likely to be plenty, and there may be some names such as Losman, Grossman, Harrington, Carr, Culpepper, Pennington, and others available via FA once teams start making their cuts. One or more of them will be signed to hold the position until the QB they take in round 2 or 3, or next year is ready.

I could be wrong, but I didn't see anything from Beck, and he certainly had a lot more to work with than the kid in SF. Besides that, I find it hard to believe that short of Beck being the next John Elway, which he ain't, that Parcells would go to war with someone else's soldiers, to paraphrase. I could see the Fins taking Flaco, or Johnson, or someone similar, and bringing him on over a year or two as they build up their Oline, WRs, and defense.

Another possibility here, is the Parcells/Crennel history. Cleveland has both Quinn and Anderson. Who knows. This could be a trade possibility either this year, or next.
cjs206
I was looking at a Pat Kirwan article earlier, and something he said made a load of sense. How's about this for a couple of nice trades:

Miami gets:
#22
#28
HB Marion Barber

Dallas gets:
#1 (to select Darren McFadden)

THEN:

Miami gets:
QB Derek Anderson

Cleveland gets:
#28
#65

That would be done as an RFA offer sheet to Anderson, assuming he's given the 1st and 3rd tender. That way, the Fins keep a 1st rounder get a franchise QB and RB for the sake of trading down and giving up a 3rd...How good would that be Fins fans?
nyyjones
QUOTE (cjs206 @ Feb 12 2008, 7:05:34 AM) *
I was looking at a Pat Kirwan article earlier, and something he said made a load of sense. How's about this for a couple of nice trades:

Miami gets:
#22
#28
HB Marion Barber

Dallas gets:
#1 (to select Darren McFadden)

THEN:

Miami gets:
QB Derek Anderson

Cleveland gets:
#28
#65

That would be done as an RFA offer sheet to Anderson, assuming he's given the 1st and 3rd tender. That way, the Fins keep a 1st rounder get a franchise QB and RB for the sake of trading down and giving up a 3rd...How good would that be Fins fans?

On paper, this is a realistic trade...much more so than what I see being dreamed up around here for the most part.

Anyhow, I alluded to the Parcells/Crennel relationship, and the possibility of Anderson ending up in Miami just yesterday or the day before. It all comes down to this...is Anderson a Parcells type of QB?

I remember when Simms was a young QB, and he made a lot of mistakes and turned the ball over quite a bit...a common theme for young QBs, but not something that endears one to Parcells very long. I remember the ups and downs, the benchings, and the statements Parcells made about Simms. As everyone who's seen him knows, Parcells can be quite caustic with his remarks. Simms had the intestinal fortitude and the work ethic to withstand those remarks and eventually displayed the skills and results Parcells demanded...not everyone does.

This has been Anderson's problem, and the question is this...does Parcells believe those turnovers will go down? The Browns had significantly better offensive weapons than the Fins did, or are likely to have this year, in Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow, not to mention a much better Oline.

If the Dolphins made this trade, I would look for more moves, including the trading of Ronnie Brown. They would need to come up with at least 2 OLs, a WR and TE minimum. This doesn't include addressing the many defensive needs the Dolphins presently have. Still, you have to start somewhere, and a trade similar to this could evolve.

Nice catch and post, cjs206.
nyyjones
In a related story, the Dolphins are still interested in Trent Green as their QB...just not at his old contract numbers. However, they are awaiting results of further medical tests and doctor's clearances to play.
mono6413
I think the fins are wanting to give Beck an opportunity to prove himself. Parcells is going to build this team from the foundation out. Meaning he will start on the lines and plug in the skill position players. On the other side of the ball DBs do much better when the D-line can get pressure and stop the run. Parcells will start on the lines and plug in "his type of people" at the skill position. Winning the battle in the trenches is the key to winning! Whether drafting, trading, or FAs we know Parcells is not looking to overpay anyone especially if the player doesn't/can't bring it every play.
nyyjones
QUOTE (mono6413 @ Feb 12 2008, 11:26:47 PM) *
I think the fins are wanting to give Beck an opportunity to prove himself. Parcells is going to build this team from the foundation out. Meaning he will start on the lines and plug in the skill position players. On the other side of the ball DBs do much better when the D-line can get pressure and stop the run. Parcells will start on the lines and plug in "his type of people" at the skill position. Winning the battle in the trenches is the key to winning! Whether drafting, trading, or FAs we know Parcells is not looking to overpay anyone especially if the player doesn't/can't bring it every play.

You are quite correct, mono6413. It has been a "Parcells Mantra" to develop both his offensive lines (huge), and his defensive front 7 (with at least two pass rushers and a run stopping DT and ILB). He will, however, go for a QB if he sees one he likes...i.e. Drew Bledsoe...twice.

With the cuts they made yesterday, the Fins are $31 million under the cap right now, and you can bet more room will be coming. There are some good pass rushers available in FA. If they go to the 3-4, one of his biggest needs will be finding a NT, and two ILBs. He loves to stop teams from running, then unleash a pass rush on them once he turns them one dimensional. I would assume Sparano will be somewhat similar. I expect the Fins to be major players in FA, and I look for them to raid division rival NE for one. Also, Parcells has, according to ESPN radio here in West Palm, contacted Keyshawn Johnson about playing next year. He is definitely a "Parcells type" player, and Parcells is one coach Keyshawn would consider leaving his analyst job to play for.

I have watched Parcells for over 20 years. To say he wouldn't do a deal similar to this is premature. Barber is definitely a "Parcells type" player, so the real question is whether Anderson is someone Parcells envisions as a QB who will be able to eventually lead the Fins to the SB. Getting those two and another 1st is not a bad deal if he likes Anderson...and there is a history between him and Crennel.
dolfan75070
QUOTE (nyyjones @ Feb 13 2008, 4:03:34 AM) *
On paper, this is a realistic trade...much more so than what I see being dreamed up around here for the most part.

Anyhow, I alluded to the Parcells/Crennel relationship, and the possibility of Anderson ending up in Miami just yesterday or the day before. It all comes down to this...is Anderson a Parcells type of QB?

I remember when Simms was a young QB, and he made a lot of mistakes and turned the ball over quite a bit...a common theme for young QBs, but not something that endears one to Parcells very long. I remember the ups and downs, the benchings, and the statements Parcells made about Simms. As everyone who's seen him knows, Parcells can be quite caustic with his remarks. Simms had the intestinal fortitude and the work ethic to withstand those remarks and eventually displayed the skills and results Parcells demanded...not everyone does.

This has been Anderson's problem, and the question is this...does Parcells believe those turnovers will go down? The Browns had significantly better offensive weapons than the Fins did, or are likely to have this year, in Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow, not to mention a much better Oline.

If the Dolphins made this trade, I would look for more moves, including the trading of Ronnie Brown. They would need to come up with at least 2 OLs, a WR and TE minimum. This doesn't include addressing the many defensive needs the Dolphins presently have. Still, you have to start somewhere, and a trade similar to this could evolve.

Nice catch and post, cjs206.


Speaking of dreams, I have a pretty good one for the fins. I would like to see them trade out of the 1st spot to Atlanta at 3 for the 3rd pic and their first 2nd rounder if not both of their 2nds. Depends on how much they may want Ryan. I think at 3 DMC will stll be available. Parcells then makes deal with Dallas for their 2 1st rounders and a 2nd. The Dolphins need a lot of help and this could get them started in the right direction. I do realize this depends on if a team will trade up or not.

On the Beck Question: I would like to see them stay with Beck and pick up a project type player like Kevin O'Connell. I don't think Beck had the players around him last year and had a whole lot of pressure with not having a win. All this for a rookie makes it even tougher than a normal rookie season for a QB. It is rare that a rookie comes in and takes a team to the SB. For this I say give him another year.
gpngc
QUOTE (dolfan75070 @ Feb 13 2008, 10:48:21 PM) *
Speaking of dreams, I have a pretty good one for the fins. I would like to see them trade out of the 1st spot to Atlanta at 3 for the 3rd pic and their first 2nd rounder if not both of their 2nds. Depends on how much they may want Ryan. I think at 3 DMC will stll be available. Parcells then makes deal with Dallas for their 2 1st rounders and a 2nd. The Dolphins need a lot of help and this could get them started in the right direction. I do realize this depends on if a team will trade up or not.

On the Beck Question: I would like to see them stay with Beck and pick up a project type player like Kevin O'Connell. I don't think Beck had the players around him last year and had a whole lot of pressure with not having a win. All this for a rookie makes it even tougher than a normal rookie season for a QB. It is rare that a rookie comes in and takes a team to the SB. For this I say give him another year.


Hey dolfan, welcome to the site.

I have a question about the Kirwan trade thing: Why would Miami want Mario Barber when they have Ronnie Brown and other guys?
dolfan75070
QUOTE (gpngc @ Feb 14 2008, 4:25:24 AM) *
Hey dolfan, welcome to the site.

I have a question about the Kirwan trade thing: Why would Miami want Mario Barber when they have Ronnie Brown and other guys?


Thanks for the welcome. I wouldn't think they would want Barber nor do I think the Boyz give him up. I think the Cowboys want the Barber & DMC combo.

I know what I am saying is a stretch about the trades but I've seen stranger things in the draft. I was thinking that after the trade to Atlanta, the Dolphins would then again deal with the cowboys. The fins newly acquired 3rd pic for the Cowboys two 1st rounders and a 2nd.

Dolphins get -- Atlanta's 1st round pic, number 3 and Atlanta's first pic in the 2nd round. Possibly both of their 2nd round pics.
Atlanta gets -- Dolphins first pic overall
Atlanta takes Ryan

Cowboys get -- 3 rd pic from the Dolphins
Cowboys take DMC
Dolphins get the Cowboys 22nd and 28th pics in the first and their 2nd rounder

Overall this gives the Fins two 1st round pics and four 2nd round pics. Would be a sweet deal if it could go down. Depends on the all the Planets being aligned.

nyyjones
QUOTE (gpngc @ Feb 13 2008, 11:25:24 PM) *
Hey dolfan, welcome to the site.

I have a question about the Kirwan trade thing: Why would Miami want Mario Barber when they have Ronnie Brown and other guys?

Why would Miami want Barber when they already have Brown? Well, gpngc, before Brown began to show he could play last year, he hadn't done much. I don't think his injury is significant to the point that it will rob him of his skills. However, one of the questions about him seemed to be his work ethic. If that's the case, he better be working hard right now, because Parcells is notorious for getting rid of player who don't, and players who don't participate in the "voluntary" workouts in the off-season.

With Barber, the whole Dolphin front office and coaching staff would get someone they know, are comfortable with, and confident in. He's a Parcells type RB...big, punishing, and downhill all the way...Brown, although big, is not the punishing downhill RB Barber is.

And, dolfan75070, I understand your desire for the Fins to get as many picks as they can, but once again, like many here, you propose a trade that is just unrealistic. Atlanta would have to be really dumb, and really hard up for Ryan, or any player they think is the No1 pick in this draft to give up a 2nd rounder to move up two spots. It just won't happen...much less both 2nds...especially since it's very likely Ryan will be there when they pick...unless Ryan is who the Fins are actually looking at, and I would not rule that out either.

If you look at the trade Kirwin proposes (remember, he's a former NFL GM, so he knows a bit about how this works and would not mention this if it weren't realistic...and if there weren't a bit of smoke to it), you'll see the Fins giving up the 1st overall pick in the draft for 2 1st round picks, both of which are in the bottom third of the 1st round, and a known quantity in RB Barber. I would think if Barber were not included, then perhaps there would be a 3rd or 4th rounder added to the deal this year, and perhaps a 3rd or 4th rounder next year. That's about the best you could hope for, unless you're dealing with some really dumb GM. I don't blame you for preferring your proposed trade...I would too...two 1st rounders and two, perhaps three 2nd rounders...it just ain't going to happen though.

You just are not going to get a ton of picks for that 1st like you used to unless there's someone like a John Elway who's available because of the salary cap, and the financial obligations the top 5 picks command presently. That is why it's so hard for teams to trade one of those picks now. They can't get the true value back because the team who takes one of those picks is saddled with a very large contract. After the first 5, the price drops significantly, although it's still substantial.

The only way that changes is if the NFL and Players Association come to a future agreement that is more fair to veterans who have proven themselves, and probably allows drafted players to reach free agency quicker so they are not tied up to a contract that doesn't fairly compensate them once they begin to prove themselves too. In that way, if a drafted player is a bust, he won't screw up a team's salary cap long-term, and if he's good, he'll get his reward after a short "evaluation" period, if you will.
cjs206
QUOTE (dolfan75070 @ Feb 14 2008, 3:48:21 AM) *
I would like to see them trade out of the 1st spot to Atlanta at 3 for the 3rd pic and their first 2nd rounder if not both of their 2nds. Depends on how much they may want Ryan.


If we trade up for a QB I will seriously hurt someone!

QUOTE (gpngc @ Feb 14 2008, 4:25:24 AM) *
I have a question about the Kirwan trade thing: Why would Miami want Mario Barber when they have Ronnie Brown and other guys?


Because Brown has a terrible injury history and the others are totally unrealiable!
bcdrama
Corey Boyd will be there for you in the 4th, he's durable, has good hands, and is a decent blocker. The only way you take a QB is if John David Booty falls to you in the 3rd, Dixon, O'Connell or Ainge is there in the 5th otherwise hold your water and see if you can develop what you have under center. wink.gif
QUOTE (cjs206 @ Feb 14 2008, 9:19:42 PM) *
If we trade up for a QB I will seriously hurt someone!



Because Brown has a terrible injury history and the others are totally unrealiable!

bwalker
Jay Glazer is stating that Zach Thomas is the next to go.
bcdrama
He was released earlier today, I hope he goes to a team that will use him properly, if spotted he could still produce, IMHO. wink.gif
QUOTE (bwalker @ Feb 14 2008, 11:38:59 PM) *
Jay Glazer is stating that Zach Thomas is the next to go.

dolfan75070
QUOTE (bcdrama @ Feb 15 2008, 12:07:27 AM) *
He was released earlier today, I hope he goes to a team that will use him properly, if spotted he could still produce, IMHO. wink.gif


It is going to get even more interesting this offseason for the Dolphins. Anyone hear anything about the Fins DB's yet? Who's next???

I wish Zach well on the next team and hope he gets that SB ring.
gpngc
QUOTE (dolfan75070 @ Feb 14 2008, 8:40:44 PM) *
It is going to get even more interesting this offseason for the Dolphins. Anyone hear anything about the Fins DB's yet? Who's next???

I wish Zach well on the next team and hope he gets that SB ring.


Class act. I hope he goes to a team I can root for and not the Patriots!!
packfan36450
I think the Dolphins put themselves in an even deeper hole in last years draft. They should've taken Quinn in the first instead of Ginn then in the second you could've taken Dwyane Jarrett. If they had other needs then they could've picked James Jones whos better than both.
nyyjones
QUOTE (packfan36450 @ Feb 14 2008, 10:06:15 PM) *
I think the Dolphins put themselves in an even deeper hole in last years draft. They should've taken Quinn in the first instead of Ginn then in the second you could've taken Dwyane Jarrett. If they had other needs then they could've picked James Jones whos better than both.

Hindsight is always 20/20, but that statement is irrelevant now that they have a new front office regime and HC in place. Anyone picked last year, or in any year prior is open for evaluation now.

Thomas had been going downhill for years. The big problem down here is he is, next to Marino, perhaps the most loved of all Dolphins of all time. With Parcells in charge, it allowed the GM and HC to have the "backing" needed to finally show him the door without a big outcry. I've watched his steady decline, and made numerous posts about it for years. He did make a lot of tackles, but a good many of them were after the RB had picked up a significant chunk of yardage...5, 7, or more yards. His best performances now are when he's blitzing a lot. When blitzing, he does make penetration, and he's still a pretty good tackler when he gets his hands on someone.

On a side note, it is being widely rumored the Pats will sign him...even at his age, he would bring down the average age of the Pat's LB corp. My problem with this rumor, is he does not fit the mold of a Patriot LB...then again, he didn't fit the mold of a NFL LB to begin with.
mono6413
QUOTE
He did make a lot of tackles, but a good many of them were after the RB had picked up a significant chunk of yardage...5, 7, or more yards. His best performances now are when he's blitzing a lot. When blitzing, he does make penetration, and he's still a pretty good tackler when he gets his hands on someone.


I think you are right on the money. Thomas' ILB blitzing ability fits right into NE scheme and the fact that he wants a ring I am sure will play into his salary. All this considered it's a match. This puts us $35 million under the cap. I am wondering who will target in FA? Big names or role players?
gpngc
QUOTE (mono6413 @ Feb 15 2008, 9:48:19 AM) *
I think you are right on the money. Thomas' ILB blitzing ability fits right into NE scheme and the fact that he wants a ring I am sure will play into his salary. All this considered it's a match. This puts us $35 million under the cap. I am wondering who will target in FA? Big names or role players?


Trufant and Asante Samuel come to mind.
mono6413
QUOTE (gpngc @ Feb 15 2008, 11:03:30 AM) *
Trufant and Asante Samuel come to mind.


I think Samuel is over rated. I really like Trufant and Ken Hamlin for our secondary. I think Parcells and Sparano will start with both lines fisrt. Just like the cuts they made.
nyyjones
QUOTE (mono6413 @ Feb 15 2008, 2:15:09 PM) *
I think Samuel is over rated. I really like Trufant and Ken Hamlin for our secondary. I think Parcells and Sparano will start with both lines fisrt. Just like the cuts they made.

I don't think Samuels is overrated. And, I have been saying I believe Parcells will try to do as much damage as he can to NE, so long as it also helps Miami, and doesn't hurt his cap situation. I am thinking more and more the Fins are going to draft Ryan...if they do not draft a QB in the 1st this year, then it will be next, and I think Ryan is a better pro prospect than either Tebow or Stafford, probably the top two for next year if Tebow comes out. Beck is not the QB of Miami's future, IMO. They could go QB in a later round, but the only other QB I think a Parcells led team would consider is Flaco, and I would not be surprised to see someone jump the gun on him before round 2...just a hunch right now...we'll know a lot more after the combine I'm sure.
Guest_mono6413_*
QUOTE (nyyjones @ Feb 16 2008, 8:21:04 PM) *
I don't think Samuels is overrated. And, I have been saying I believe Parcells will try to do as much damage as he can to NE, so long as it also helps Miami, and doesn't hurt his cap situation. I am thinking more and more the Fins are going to draft Ryan...if they do not draft a QB in the 1st this year, then it will be next, and I think Ryan is a better pro prospect than either Tebow or Stafford, probably the top two for next year if Tebow comes out. Beck is not the QB of Miami's future, IMO. They could go QB in a later round, but the only other QB I think a Parcells led team would consider is Flaco, and I would not be surprised to see someone jump the gun on him before round 2...just a hunch right now...we'll know a lot more after the combine I'm sure.


Samuels play is surrounded by many talented teamates. I would rather see Trufant on our teem than Samuels. Bilicheat has always had very good schemes to disrupte offenses. I think is going to be very intresting to see if Samuels really deserves all the credit he gets.

Do you think if the Dolphins draft Ryan; Atl will offer something for him or will they just take the best player available?

I agree that Beck is not the future, but any QB would have looked bad behind the horrible O-Line we had last year.
nyyjones
QUOTE (Guest_mono6413_* @ Feb 18 2008, 3:38:46 PM) *
Samuels play is surrounded by many talented teamates. I would rather see Trufant on our teem than Samuels. Bilicheat has always had very good schemes to disrupte offenses. I think is going to be very intresting to see if Samuels really deserves all the credit he gets.

Do you think if the Dolphins draft Ryan; Atl will offer something for him or will they just take the best player available?

I agree that Beck is not the future, but any QB would have looked bad behind the horrible O-Line we had last year.

I keep hearing everyone talk about Samuel being over-rated. I keep hearing he's surrounded by talented teammates. Let's be honest here...the Pat's D is nothing special. It is mostly built around schemes that camouflage their many weaknesses. They have a superior Dline for a 3-4 team. Thomas is a superior OLB. Other than that, there is little talent left. The safeties are average at best now, and old. Gay is very beatable...nuff said about the DBs. The LBs live off their past glory for the most part. Without Samuel, and his shutdown cover ability, the Pats would have given up nearly as many points as they scored, IMO. He's also a good run supporter for a CB. Another overlooked aspect of his game, is his ability to play at a high level for 4 quarters, and how he steps up when the spotlight is on him. How anyone can state he is the product of the talent around him is beyond me...period. I don't understand how you can state something that is completely opposite of what is nearly a unanimous opinion, not by me, but by people in the NFL. Watch some film.

As for the QB/Oline situation with the Fins. They have two young keepers in Carey and Satele, although Carey is probably better suited inside, rather than LT or RT. Don't be surprised if they don't hit FA heavy for some good OL with all their cap room. I think OL, DL, DB, and LB will all be targets for them in FA, and expect them to bring in a few elite FAs, along with some good journeymen. If the Titans tag Haynesworth, then Jacob Bell would be a nice G to check out...he's both very good, and young too. I don't know that they get Adams, but the draft would bring a good prospect in the 2nd round for the LT position. This line could be rebuilt very quickly through FA and the draft...and hence, Ryan would look real good behind Satele. Now, all you need is someone to catch the damn ball.
dolfan75070
QUOTE (nyyjones @ Feb 14 2008, 5:14:33 AM) *
With Barber, the whole Dolphin front office and coaching staff would get someone they know, are comfortable with, and confident in. He's a Parcells type RB...big, punishing, and downhill all the way...Brown, although big, is not the punishing downhill RB Barber is.

And, dolfan75070, I understand your desire for the Fins to get as many picks as they can, but once again, like many here, you propose a trade that is just unrealistic. Atlanta would have to be really dumb, and really hard up for Ryan, or any player they think is the No1 pick in this draft to give up a 2nd rounder to move up two spots. It just won't happen...much less both 2nds...especially since it's very likely Ryan will be there when they pick...unless Ryan is who the Fins are actually looking at, and I would not rule that out either.

If you look at the trade Kirwin proposes (remember, he's a former NFL GM, so he knows a bit about how this works and would not mention this if it weren't realistic...and if there weren't a bit of smoke to it), you'll see the Fins giving up the 1st overall pick in the draft for 2 1st round picks, both of which are in the bottom third of the 1st round, and a known quantity in RB Barber. I would think if Barber were not included, then perhaps there would be a 3rd or 4th rounder added to the deal this year, and perhaps a 3rd or 4th rounder next year. That's about the best you could hope for, unless you're dealing with some really dumb GM. I don't blame you for preferring your proposed trade...I would too...two 1st rounders and two, perhaps three 2nd rounders...it just ain't going to happen though.

You just are not going to get a ton of picks for that 1st like you used to unless there's someone like a John Elway who's available because of the salary cap, and the financial obligations the top 5 picks command presently. That is why it's so hard for teams to trade one of those picks now. They can't get the true value back because the team who takes one of those picks is saddled with a very large contract. After the first 5, the price drops significantly, although it's still substantial.


Why would the Atlanta / Miami trade be "unrealistic"? Atlanta needs a QB, Ryan is the best QB in this years draft, he's a franchise QB at that and talented. On the draft points chart if the trade does happen for their 3rd pic and their first 2nd round pic, those pics still don't add up to the 3000 points the 1st pic is worth. And Atlanta still has another 2nd round pic. They don't lose much at all by making the trade.

Now, I don't know this will happen, this is just hope BUT I don't think it is unrealistic in any way. Miami may take Ryan with that first pic anyway. I hope they don't, I would rather they wait and pic up 1 of these three: Flacco, Henne or a longer project in O'connell.

I do know you're correct about contract value for the 1st overall pic. That is a tough pill to swallow.

Anyone else want to chime in with their thoughts? Unrealistic or realistic???


nyyjones
QUOTE (dolfan75070 @ Feb 18 2008, 6:45:41 PM) *
Why would the Atlanta / Miami trade be "unrealistic"? Atlanta needs a QB, Ryan is the best QB in this years draft, he's a franchise QB at that and talented. On the draft points chart if the trade does happen for their 3rd pic and their first 2nd round pic, those pics still don't add up to the 3000 points the 1st pic is worth. And Atlanta still has another 2nd round pic. They don't lose much at all by making the trade.

Now, I don't know this will happen, this is just hope BUT I don't think it is unrealistic in any way. Miami may take Ryan with that first pic anyway. I hope they don't, I would rather they wait and pic up 1 of these three: Flacco, Henne or a longer project in O'connell.

I do know you're correct about contract value for the 1st overall pic. That is a tough pill to swallow.

Anyone else want to chime in with their thoughts? Unrealistic or realistic???

Here's why it won't happen, dolfan75070, and, BTW, welcome to the site.

You are correct that the two picks, according to "the chart" still don't equal the value of Miami's 1st overall pick. However, if you're going to make it "even," then it would be a swap of 1st rounders, Atlanta's first 2nd rounder, and a 4th rounder, perhaps a 3rd at best. Another thing you should realize is that not all teams use this value chart. A lot of teams have their own ways of looking at the perceived "value" of a draft pick, and the chart shown on this site is but one of a handful in use. In fact, I believe this is the chart Pat Kirwin used when he was a GM in the NFL, and he originally shared it in a column he did on nfl.com. However, it is not the only chart in existence.

The second reason it won't happen is simple economics. Economics 101, infact. In all likelihood, nobody is going to trade up to draft Ryan No1, or even No2, so he should be there at No3. Right now, the most likely scenario has Dallas trading up for McFadden, and with McFadden's stock falling that could be in jeopardy too. Even if the Falcons draft 4th, nobody who currently drafts before them will need a QB, except your Dolphins. The next team that might draft him, would be KC, and after them, Baltimore. So, unless they blow the coin flip totally and end up picking 5th (which I'm not sure they can even drop that low), they don't have to worry about anyone taking Ryan before they draft. So, why pay Ryan at No1, when you can save millions by paying him No3? That alone makes up for your perceived value from the chart for the draft picks.

Which brings us to point No3. Like your Dolphins, the Falcons need players...lots of players. To give up 2 day one picks would be a truly stupid move on their part. If...and suppose this does happen...let's say either KC or Baltimore decide they want to trade with Miami to get Ryan, and he's off the board when the Falcons pick, so what? Now they can pay attention to their Oline, Dline, LBs, or DBs with their No1 pick. Then, they could take a QB with one of their two 2nds, perhaps taking a flyer on a Henne, Flaco, or Johnson...not a bad alternative, IMO, dolfan75070.

BTW, don't be surprised if Ryan is the Fins first pick.

P.S. One more reason your proposed trade will never happne...two names...Arthur Blank...Bill Parcells. It will be a long time before Blank does business with Parcells again...unless he thinks he can hurt the Dolphins.
dolfan75070
QUOTE (nyyjones @ Feb 19 2008, 5:29:42 AM) *
Here's why it won't happen, dolfan75070, and, BTW, welcome to the site.

You are correct that the two picks, according to "the chart" still don't equal the value of Miami's 1st overall pick. However, if you're going to make it "even," then it would be a swap of 1st rounders, Atlanta's first 2nd rounder, and a 4th rounder, perhaps a 3rd at best. Another thing you should realize is that not all teams use this value chart. A lot of teams have their own ways of looking at the perceived "value" of a draft pick, and the chart shown on this site is but one of a handful in use. In fact, I believe this is the chart Pat Kirwin used when he was a GM in the NFL, and he originally shared it in a column he did on nfl.com. However, it is not the only chart in existence.

The second reason it won't happen is simple economics. Economics 101, infact. In all likelihood, nobody is going to trade up to draft Ryan No1, or even No2, so he should be there at No3. Right now, the most likely scenario has Dallas trading up for McFadden, and with McFadden's stock falling that could be in jeopardy too. Even if the Falcons draft 4th, nobody who currently drafts before them will need a QB, except your Dolphins. The next team that might draft him, would be KC, and after them, Baltimore. So, unless they blow the coin flip totally and end up picking 5th (which I'm not sure they can even drop that low), they don't have to worry about anyone taking Ryan before they draft. So, why pay Ryan at No1, when you can save millions by paying him No3? That alone makes up for your perceived value from the chart for the draft picks.

Which brings us to point No3. Like your Dolphins, the Falcons need players...lots of players. To give up 2 day one picks would be a truly stupid move on their part. If...and suppose this does happen...let's say either KC or Baltimore decide they want to trade with Miami to get Ryan, and he's off the board when the Falcons pick, so what? Now they can pay attention to their Oline, Dline, LBs, or DBs with their No1 pick. Then, they could take a QB with one of their two 2nds, perhaps taking a flyer on a Henne, Flaco, or Johnson...not a bad alternative, IMO, dolfan75070.

BTW, don't be surprised if Ryan is the Fins first pick.

P.S. One more reason your proposed trade will never happne...two names...Arthur Blank...Bill Parcells. It will be a long time before Blank does business with Parcells again...unless he thinks he can hurt the Dolphins.


Thanks for the welcome. I appreciate your comments here.

I wouldn't be surprised if Miami took Ryan. I hope they are able to trade. I am hoping Ryan and DMC have Monster combines and/or individual workouts. Thereofre making other teams want them more. I am also counting on the human eliment. The fear that some other team would get their guy. Maybe Blank could think he's screwing Parcell's by making the deal and getting the #1 QB in the draft. Of course this is all wishful thinking and pure speculation. BUT this is what I like about the draft sites and this forum.

Personally, I am not sold either way on Beck. So I would rather Miami use a later pic to take Brohm, Flacco, Henne or even a longer project in O'connell. I really like the little I saw of O'connell in the East / West Shrine game. And a team could get him later on the 2nd day. From what I've been reading most draft sites have hime around round 5 or 6.

If Miami is to stay at #1 then I would prefer they look at C. Long, Dorsey or Ellis. I know we need a lot of help so I am hoping for trade after trade to stock pile pics in the 2nd, 3rd and even the fourth rounds.

If I am a GM I wouldn't follow the chart either. It is a half way decent way to put a point value on Drafting but not an exact science because the talent coming out varies year to year. I would also make all the teams that wanted Ryan or DMC believe that Miami is taking 1 or the other. Forcing their hands sort of speak. I guess a GM has to be a poker player of sorts. I don't think I'd play Parcell's in poker but not sold on Ireland's poker face yet.

When do they do the coin flip to determine the "tie breaker"?

A Dallas Dolfan!!

bcdrama
O'connell is a 5th/6th round prospect with very impressive upside, Bernard Morriss is a 7th round sleeper who is like Cleo Lemons, but faster, Alex Brink is a Beck clone who is a 7th to UDFA, this is a good year to avoid taking QBs in the 1st Round and Parcells will have them move for a veteran as a stopgap and look toward a future draft with better QBs. wink.gif
QUOTE (dolfan75070 @ Feb 19 2008, 9:32:45 PM) *
Thanks for the welcome. I appreciate your comments here.

I wouldn't be surprised if Miami took Ryan. I hope they are able to trade. I am hoping Ryan and DMC have Monster combines and/or individual workouts. Thereofre making other teams want them more. I am also counting on the human eliment. The fear that some other team would get their guy. Maybe Blank could think he's screwing Parcell's by making the deal and getting the #1 QB in the draft. Of course this is all wishful thinking and pure speculation. BUT this is what I like about the draft sites and this forum.

Personally, I am not sold either way on Beck. So I would rather Miami use a later pic to take Brohm, Flacco, Henne or even a longer project in O'connell. I really like the little I saw of O'connell in the East / West Shrine game. And a team could get him later on the 2nd day. From what I've been reading most draft sites have hime around round 5 or 6.

If Miami is to stay at #1 then I would prefer they look at C. Long, Dorsey or Ellis. I know we need a lot of help so I am hoping for trade after trade to stock pile pics in the 2nd, 3rd and even the fourth rounds.

If I am a GM I wouldn't follow the chart either. It is a half way decent way to put a point value on Drafting but not an exact science because the talent coming out varies year to year. I would also make all the teams that wanted Ryan or DMC believe that Miami is taking 1 or the other. Forcing their hands sort of speak. I guess a GM has to be a poker player of sorts. I don't think I'd play Parcell's in poker but not sold on Ireland's poker face yet.

When do they do the coin flip to determine the "tie breaker"?

A Dallas Dolfan!!

bwalker
They'll do the coin flip to decide the tie breakers at the Combine this week. I'm not sure what day, but I think we'll know by Fri. at the latest.
cjs206
QUOTE (dolfan75070 @ Feb 19 2008, 9:32:45 PM) *
When do they do the coin flip to determine the "tie breaker"?


In answer to this question, my understanding is that it will happen tomorrow (Wednesday). That is the information I have...

In response to the earlier comment about the Falcons trading up to #1, we could not afford to waste a 2nd round pick on trading up 2 spots, especially when there are 5 guys we're looking at drafting early. Any of Matt Ryan, McFadden, Glenn Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis or Jake Long would all be nice fits in Atlanta. So, no matter where we pick, one of those guys will be available to us. It's not a case of "the Falcons must draft Matt Ryan", we can live without him because we accept we need a lot of help across the board.
dolfan75070
QUOTE (cjs206 @ Feb 19 2008, 10:00:49 PM) *
In answer to this question, my understanding is that it will happen tomorrow (Wednesday). That is the information I have...

In response to the earlier comment about the Falcons trading up to #1, we could not afford to waste a 2nd round pick on trading up 2 spots, especially when there are 5 guys we're looking at drafting early. Any of Matt Ryan, McFadden, Glenn Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis or Jake Long would all be nice fits in Atlanta. So, no matter where we pick, one of those guys will be available to us. It's not a case of "the Falcons must draft Matt Ryan", we can live without him because we accept we need a lot of help across the board.

This is an article in the Miami paper today.

http://dolphinsindepth.blogspot.com/2008/0...hins-draft.html
mono6413
QUOTE (dolfan75070 @ Feb 21 2008, 1:08:59 PM) *
This is an article in the Miami paper today.

http://dolphinsindepth.blogspot.com/2008/0...hins-draft.html


Thanks for the link. I too am a Dallas (Keller) Dolfan. I keep hearing about J. Long at the combine. I think he is going to be great. I would like to see the fins draft either one of the Long's. They are both tough and smart! I think we can get talent through FA so we don't have to focus soley on the draft to improve our roster.

I think the Atl trade is realistic especially if they do not get the 3rd pick. If they end up with the 3rd they may just settle for whoever is there. At the end of the day I would not be surprised to see Parcells take the player which has received the most intrest. This way he will force a team to make a trade with the Dolphins. I believe Parcells is intrested in taking a lineman in the 1st round just not with the 1st overall.

BTW, I really like Johnson! He was a beast in their bowl game gaining over 400 total yards. I think teams are sleeping on him and I would not mind pick him up and giving us the ability to perhaps trade some of our backfield. He may be able to make anyone in our backfield expendable.
dolfan75070
QUOTE (mono6413 @ Feb 22 2008, 3:13:23 PM) *
Thanks for the link. I too am a Dallas (Keller) Dolfan. I keep hearing about J. Long at the combine. I think he is going to be great. I would like to see the fins draft either one of the Long's. They are both tough and smart! I think we can get talent through FA so we don't have to focus soley on the draft to improve our roster.

I think the Atl trade is realistic especially if they do not get the 3rd pick. If they end up with the 3rd they may just settle for whoever is there. At the end of the day I would not be surprised to see Parcells take the player which has received the most intrest. This way he will force a team to make a trade with the Dolphins. I believe Parcells is intrested in taking a lineman in the 1st round just not with the 1st overall.

BTW, I really like Johnson! He was a beast in their bowl game gaining over 400 total yards. I think teams are sleeping on him and I would not mind pick him up and giving us the ability to perhaps trade some of our backfield. He may be able to make anyone in our backfield expendable.


I am in McKinney. I saw the coverage NFL Network had of the combine yesterday and J. Long looked really lean with very long arms. I think he will make a big impression this week at the combine. I'd also be happy with either of the Longs.

We will see today what happens with the coin flip. I agree that Parcell's and co. should sell that we are taking the player that has the most interest to try and force the hand of another team. And go as far as to take that player.

You're right about Johnson but am afraid he'll be gone before the fins would want to pic another back. I do think we may select a RB in later rounds because of durability concerns of our current backfield.

The fact that we released Booker tells me that they are looking at receivers. Who do you like and in what round do you think we'll have a shot at a good one? I realy like Hawkins and Arrington but not sure what round Arrington will go in. Hawkins could be a late 2nd but am thinking he'd be available in the 3rd.
dolfan75070
QUOTE (mono6413 @ Feb 22 2008, 3:13:23 PM) *
I think the Atl trade is realistic especially if they do not get the 3rd pick. If they end up with the 3rd they may just settle for whoever is there. At the end of the day I would not be surprised to see Parcells take the player which has received the most intrest. This way he will force a team to make a trade with the Dolphins. I believe Parcells is intrested in taking a lineman in the 1st round just not with the 1st overall.


I just heard the Falcons won the coin toss and will be picking third.
mono6413
QUOTE (dolfan75070 @ Feb 22 2008, 11:19:40 AM) *
We will see today what happens with the coin flip.

You're right about Johnson but am afraid he'll be gone before the fins would want to pic another back. I do think we may select a RB in later rounds because of durability concerns of our current backfield.

The fact that we released Booker tells me that they are looking at receivers. Who do you like and in what round do you think we'll have a shot at a good one? I realy like Hawkins and Arrington but not sure what round Arrington will go in. Hawkins could be a late 2nd but am thinking he'd be available in the 3rd.


I saw the coin flip results. That sucked!

If we took Johnson it would give us the ability to trade anyone in our backfield. Even though Brown was a beast last season he has always had durability issues. Maybe now is the best time to get value for him?

I really like Hawkins. In fact I think if he can add 10-15lbs of muscle he is one of the best 5 WRs in this draft. Many of the other guys will measure well but Hawkins knows how to play the game! We maybe able to him with our SD pick or the 3rd.
dolfan75070
QUOTE (mono6413 @ Feb 23 2008, 7:12:17 PM) *
I saw the coin flip results. That sucked!

If we took Johnson it would give us the ability to trade anyone in our backfield. Even though Brown was a beast last season he has always had durability issues. Maybe now is the best time to get value for him?

I really like Hawkins. In fact I think if he can add 10-15lbs of muscle he is one of the best 5 WRs in this draft. Many of the other guys will measure well but Hawkins knows how to play the game! We maybe able to him with our SD pick or the 3rd.


I just heard Zach just signed with Dallas. I am wondering if Dallas is positioning for a trade with Miami that may include Carpenter and other compensation?

When do you think Johnson will leave the board? I was thinking that if we took a back like Johnson it may have to be our 1st pic in the 2nd round.
nyyjones
QUOTE (mono6413 @ Feb 22 2008, 10:13:23 AM) *
Thanks for the link. I too am a Dallas (Keller) Dolfan. I keep hearing about J. Long at the combine. I think he is going to be great. I would like to see the fins draft either one of the Long's. They are both tough and smart! I think we can get talent through FA so we don't have to focus soley on the draft to improve our roster.

I think the Atl trade is realistic especially if they do not get the 3rd pick. If they end up with the 3rd they may just settle for whoever is there. At the end of the day I would not be surprised to see Parcells take the player which has received the most intrest. This way he will force a team to make a trade with the Dolphins. I believe Parcells is intrested in taking a lineman in the 1st round just not with the 1st overall.

BTW, I really like Johnson! He was a beast in their bowl game gaining over 400 total yards. I think teams are sleeping on him and I would not mind pick him up and giving us the ability to perhaps trade some of our backfield. He may be able to make anyone in our backfield expendable.

I heard an interview with Mike Smith at the combine today, and when asked if the QB of Atlanta is on the roster, or would be drafted, he quickly changed the subject. Later on, he did admit they were looking over the QB class, and that there were 3 or 4 that piqued their interest. I believe they have the 5th pick in the 2nd, and probably one of those 3...or 4 will be there. If they do want a QB in the 1st, and Miami took Ryan looking to "force" a trade as you suggest, I don't think that happens. This is not a Manning we're talking about here, and there's still a legitimate debate as to who the best QB prospect really is, him or Brohm. Add to that the interest in Flaco, Johnson, Henne, and Ainge, and after them there's Booty, O'Connell, and the kid Morris out of Marshall, there are a number of options for the Falcons. I would not make a trade with Miami that involved two day one picks if I were Atlanta...they need them too much themselves, and Ryan, IMO, is not a sure thing at all. I like him, but not enough to give up what's being suggested. You want to trade 1st rounders and take a 3rd, maybe, but nothing more than that.

Also, let's assume they make the trade. Who do the Fins take then? They probably want Chris Long, or Ryan as it stands right now. However, if they make the trade to Atlanta for the rights to Ryan, then the guy the Fins really want would probably be scooped up by St. Louis...what good would that do them? They'd probably get a good player, but teams usually go into the draft with a set of assumptions of how players will fall, and to who they'll fall, just as we do. They often have better sources, allowing them to look forward to who might be available to them and when. These assumptions, if you will, have already been discussed over and over. They are really going to start coming together after this weekend. If they really want one of two players in the 1st, and both are gone at 3, then their whole set of assumptions up to this point are then voided. It will then take them awhile to put a plan C and D into place, as plan A has been traded, and plan B is likely to be selected before they pick. Now, if they know St. Louis is not interested in their Plan B player, or is going to trade that pick to someone who is not interested in it either, then they could pull the trigger.

I guess my point is this. If you're going to make a trade, make a trade. Don't count on having the unique situation the Chargers had with the Giants, knowing the Giants really, really wanted Manning, and knowing Manning had publicly stated he'd never play for the Chargers. This is not Manning we're talking about here. I don't believe the Falcons are desperate to acquire Ryan, like the Giants publicly were for Manning. I'm sure there's some interest, if only to insure they get him, if he's who they actually want. But, I don't think they're so desperate that they're willing to give up all that's being mentioned.

If the Fins use your strategy and drafted a player because you think someone really wants him in order to "make" them deal with you, and then they don't, what do you do if that player you took "thinking" you could "force" them to deal with you was neither your Plan A or B player? I'll tell you what you do...nothing...you're stuck. Either make a deal, or don't, but don't gamble with the No1 pick...it's already a huge and expensive gamble to begin with.
norton3476
I think if Miami can trade with Atlanta they should do that. After they move down to three you can still get Eone of the two Long's. At that point you would still have the possibility to trade down again with the Cowboys. Assuming that they are still enamored with McFadden. After his 40 time they still might be.

I think if Parcells could pull this off it would be amazing. Say #1 for #3 and Hall which give you a need at corner. Then trade #3 for The Cowboys 2 1st's and Barber? Then you have filled some needs and now have 4 picks in the first to rounds.
nyyjones
QUOTE (norton3476 @ Feb 24 2008, 4:47:54 PM) *
I think if Miami can trade with Atlanta they should do that. After they move down to three you can still get Eone of the two Long's. At that point you would still have the possibility to trade down again with the Cowboys. Assuming that they are still enamored with McFadden. After his 40 time they still might be.

I think if Parcells could pull this off it would be amazing. Say #1 for #3 and Hall which give you a need at corner. Then trade #3 for The Cowboys 2 1st's and Barber? Then you have filled some needs and now have 4 picks in the first to rounds.

That's a reasonable expectation, norton3476. I would have to get Hall signed long-term, but that is probably a fair trade. It will also probably mean the Fins would trade Brown. I don't think they'll keep two big backs.
dolfan75070
QUOTE (nyyjones @ Feb 24 2008, 10:36:42 PM) *
That's a reasonable expectation, norton3476. I would have to get Hall signed long-term, but that is probably a fair trade. It will also probably mean the Fins would trade Brown. I don't think they'll keep two big backs.


There is a rumor that D. Hall may be traded to the Giants for their 1st round pic this year.

http://www.realgmfootball.com/src_encroach...om_the_combine/
nyyjones
QUOTE (dolfan75070 @ Feb 24 2008, 10:11:07 PM) *
There is a rumor that D. Hall may be traded to the Giants for their 1st round pic this year.

http://www.realgmfootball.com/src_encroach...om_the_combine/

Yeah...I've seen the rumors, and believe that's all they are. IMO, it doesn't take a genius to see that Hall will want something like Nate Clements money when he negotiates his long-term deal with whoever trades for him. If I'm the Giants, I don't make this deal. For one, Atlanta will likely cut him if they can't trade him anyhow. For two, I'd rather have Samuel from NE, who I think is a much better CB. Teams aren't as afraid of throwing towards Hall as they are Samuel, because he's not as good. Samuel will get more money on the open market when FA hits than Hall will...but it won't be all that much more. That being the case, if I'm the Giants, I sign Samuel, and keep my No.1 which I use to draft a LB or OT.
cjs206
QUOTE (norton3476 @ Feb 24 2008, 9:47:54 PM) *
I think if Miami can trade with Atlanta they should do that. After they move down to three you can still get Eone of the two Long's. At that point you would still have the possibility to trade down again with the Cowboys. Assuming that they are still enamored with McFadden. After his 40 time they still might be.

I think if Parcells could pull this off it would be amazing. Say #1 for #3 and Hall which give you a need at corner. Then trade #3 for The Cowboys 2 1st's and Barber? Then you have filled some needs and now have 4 picks in the first to rounds.


Trade DeAngelo Hall to move up 2 spots in the draft when there's maybe 4 guys we would take? 2 of them, and probably 3, will be there when we pick at #3, so how does that make sense for Atlanta? I mean, we moved up 2 picks and got 2 2nd rounders for Matt Schaub, so why would we let Hall go for that? Besides, I know you guys are rebuilding so you'll look for any team to trade with, but in case you'd forgotten, we are rebuilding too! We want to trade down just as much as you guys, not up!
mono6413
QUOTE (dolfan75070 @ Feb 23 2008, 4:06:38 PM) *
I just heard Zach just signed with Dallas. I am wondering if Dallas is positioning for a trade with Miami that may include Carpenter and other compensation?

When do you think Johnson will leave the board? I was thinking that if we took a back like Johnson it may have to be our 1st pic in the 2nd round.


There have been rumors of Carpenter being included in a trade for our 1st. I think if Dallas would give up their 2 1st, a late rounder like a 5th w/ Carpenter and Spears; Parcells woudl be tempted to trade?

Johnson's stock has sky rocketed after the combine. He ran a 4.24 in the 40. Forte also ran a solid time and Parcells likes big backs. Either way with all the cap space we have we should be able to put a competitive product on the field.
dolfan75070
QUOTE (cjs206 @ Feb 26 2008, 2:10:02 PM) *
Trade DeAngelo Hall to move up 2 spots in the draft when there's maybe 4 guys we would take? 2 of them, and probably 3, will be there when we pick at #3, so how does that make sense for Atlanta? I mean, we moved up 2 picks and got 2 2nd rounders for Matt Schaub, so why would we let Hall go for that? Besides, I know you guys are rebuilding so you'll look for any team to trade with, but in case you'd forgotten, we are rebuilding too! We want to trade down just as much as you guys, not up!


Someone mentions it on here and then I read it in the media. Are they reading this? ha

http://dolphinsindepth.blogspot.com/2008/0...r-business.html


nyyjones
Fins sign FA G Justin Smiley of SF 49ers to 5 year

contract.http://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/default.asp?item=1036034&mode
norton3476
I just read that Jason Taylor will not be on the team next year. He is expected to be traded by the draft. The article said that most likely it will be the Packers that get him for a 2nd and a 4th.
nyyjones
QUOTE (norton3476 @ Mar 2 2008, 12:35:17 AM) *
I just read that Jason Taylor will not be on the team next year. He is expected to be traded by the draft. The article said that most likely it will be the Packers that get him for a 2nd and a 4th.

About an hour ago Parcells came out and dispelled that rumor.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3273442
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