Last year someone posted a link to a guy who does a remarkable job of predicting comp picks. I just can't remember who posted it and when they did.

I posted it... don't remember exactly when I posted it, but I haven't seen his predictions yet this year. I'll keep looking and post it when it's available.

And the Pats will be getting a 3rd for Asante Samuel. 5 picks in the Top 100 for the team that was one injured QB away from a 4th SB title in 6 years. (Snicker....snicker.....)

How did Samuel work out for you guys btw, Jeff. Were you all reasonably pleased with the "bang for the buck?"

Thank you kind sir.


I just hope the bears can get a 3rd for losing Berrian, but I don't know enough about the money and performance when it comes to the league awarding the comp picks.

They did resign Briggs so that might counter the loss of Bernard. but maybe not because he (briggs) was already a bear and not a FA from some other team.

i believe your correct about the resigning aspect . they don't detail the formula for comps but usually if the guy is a good starter , like berrian , you stand to get a 3rd unless you've picked up a free agent of similar ilk to offset the loss . i think they stack the picks at the end of the 3rd by order of draft position , so if det is awarded any 3rds they'll get pick 97 and so on. good luck with the comp

Eagles fans were "reasonably" pleased with Samuel this past year. He added a ball-hawking element that the secondary was lacking and the change in the Eagles turnover ratio from 2007 to 2008 is a large part of why they made the run to/through the playoffs this year. However, Samuel is a large part of the reason the Eagles were NOT in the Super Bowl. As you know, Samuel is not a physical corner. He doesn't play press as he uses his incredible instincts and plant-and-drive skills to make plays on the ball that other corners can't. However, the Cardinals exploited his style by throwing short timing patterns to Fitzgerald. Warner was so accurate and the plays were so quick-hitting that the Eagles never had a shot to defend them. In the regular season game, Samuel was hurt and Joselio Hanson did a much better job of jamming Fitz at the line and keeping him off his game.

No one fully understands the formula used for the comp picks. However, it seems that a large part of the calculation is the actual contract that is signed by the departing player. A marginal player who wrangles a big contract is going to produce a better comp pick than a stud player who doesn't get the big contract. Free agents re-signed by their own team are not considered in the process. It's only the balance of players lost and new players signed.

You are not correct about the order of the comp picks. Last year's Rd 3 comp picks went to (in order): Washington, Cincy, Atlanta, and Baltimore. That clearly didn't reflect the draft order in 2008.

I found the link: http://adamjt13.blog.com

Last year he posted them at the beginning of March. I don't know if he's doing it this year or not. But I'll keep checking now and then.

Yeah, I actually bookmarked the link when u posted it last year and have been checking frantically since the super bowl. I hope he does it again.