Vote away!

Do you know when the last time the Patriots traded up in the draft? I know they like to trade down, but when have they traded up?

They do trade up for players but its usually in the later rounds like last year when they traded up for Matt Slater. The last time they traded up in 1st was for Ty Warren when they traded a 5th to move from I think 26 to 25.

I would not be surprised to see them trade out of the first again. They love to move around. I don't think it is always wise to not get first round talent. Of the 4 second round picks, Vollmer and Butler appear to have been good decisions, jury is out on Chung especially at 34 when Maualuga was still there and Brace has shown nothing.

There are several key players of ours who are worthy of and should get extensions and not be allowed to play just one more year and risk them being gone. We can control the following for 2010 through various means. Let's hope we can extend them all before the draft. But if I have to bet, Wilfork and Mankins will be gone after 2010 but Gost and Guyton will be extended.

Wilfork
Mankins
Gostkowski
Guyton

We could use the transition tag but I don't see any of them worth using it on. Players we can't control, (if we are tagging VW) are and I'm not going to include fringe players like Chris Taylor, in order of importance with predictions/hopes:

Bodden (extend 4 yrs)
Faulk (extend 1 yr)
Green (GONE)
Neal (extend 1 yr)
Watson (GONE)
Banta-Cain (extend 3-4 yrs)
Hanson (GONE)
Burgess (GONE)
Woods (GONE)

If this plays out our OL is stable for 2010 but not upgraded unless Connolly is better than Neal (not sure) and if Vollmer takes over for Light (pretty sure)

Key guys who's contracts expire after 2010, assuming we are capped for 2011:



Brady (auto tag if not extended)

Moss (GONE)
Wilfork (GONE)
Mankins (GONE)

Light (GONE)
Neal (RET)
Faulk (RET)

Taylor (RET)

Maroney (GONE)

Morris (GONE or RET)

BJGE (extend)

McGowen (GONE)

Let's take this positionally not addressing just 2010 but 2011:

WR: I can't see Moss taking a paycut or the Pats laying out $10MM + to keep him in a capped year. Welker returns in 2011. If we count Edelman and Tate and Moss, this year, Welker next we have 3 quality receivers each year with ZERO depth. I favor signing K. Walter, adding 1 WR this draft, 1 next. I'd add a slot type and a down field type.

OL: Mankins, Light and Neal all turn over after 2010. Connolly and Vollmer resolve two of those spot but adding an OG is critical and I'd do it this season to give the player 1 year under the system. I'd add an OT next year to provide depth and competition for Kaczur.

RB: only BJGE is expected to remain after the 2010 season. We need at least one this year and 2 next year for the same reasons. We need a bruiser, a scat back and an every down back.

TE: One is needed this draft but as you point out, our desires and BB's could differ. However I view Baker as the blocker so he still needs a receiving TE. Moeaki, Peek, or Pitta in the 4th might make better sense given the lack of importance in the offense and higher needs.

CB: If Bodden stays, we are set. 1 of the 3 young guys should break through this year.

S: We are set with our best 3 signed into 2011.

ILB: Mayo, McKenzie and Guyton make this position less urgent. I would likely now go after Spikes only at #44.

OLB: I think we all agree Thomas will be gone before the season begins. I think we all agree TBC is more of a pass rusher/situational player. We need Crable to stay healthy and perform. He has the talent/skills/size and speed to be a BB weakside OLB but adding help here is critical.

DL: Green is likely gone so a Seymour-type DE is needed. NT can wait a year but would not pass up on D. Williams if there at #22 because he can slide over for a year and immediate be an upgrade over Wright/Pryor/Green. Brace is a bust in my book, felt that way before they drafted him.


Back with new mock in a minute based on this.

It became very clear to me over the past few years that the Pats attempt to use F/A to plug holes before the draft. They then usually draft the best player but they often move down and out to acquire more picks and occassional up to target a player/need. This year could be different because of the lack of talent in the F/A pool and the many needs facing the team over the next two years.

We will likely fill a couple of these needs through free agency. Our needs over the next two years are:

3 RBs 2010 Draft #47 Ryan Mathews, 2011 Draft 2nd Round Pick Daniel Thomas
2 WR F/A Kevin Walter and 2010 Draft #44 Brandon LaFell
1 OG 2010 Draft Jon Asamoah #53
1 OT 2011 Draft OAK FIRST ROUND PICK Gabe Carimi
1 TE 2010 Draft Colin Peek

1 NT 2011 NE FIRST ROUND PICK Jerrell Powe
1 DE Peppers anyone??, lol
1 OLB 2010 Draft #22 Graham (will also help out at DE)
1 P F/A 2010 signing or UDFA
1 KR

Here's how I would fill these needs.

#22 D. Williams/Odrick/Graham (front 7 D help is top need) if Iupati is there, I'd take him first. Of those mentioned, I think Graham is most likely to be there.

#44 LaFell/Thomas/Benn/Williams This seems like a great spot to land a quality WR. Indy did a great job in this area over the past two drafts.

#47 Ryan Mathews I'm betting Spiller, Dwyer and Best come off the board first and that playing for Fresno State against inferior competition hurts his stock enough to drop here. Mathews is more of an every down back like Maroney but is a better receiver. This could be our back of the future. Taylor is cut this year to make room.

#53 Jon Asamoah Taking the 2nd best OG in the draft and giving him a year to learn behind Mankins I think is smart use of this pick. Like Mankins he is 6-4 and very mobile, runs a 5.15. He's 10 lbs lighter but will quickly put that on with pro weight training.

#117 Colin Peek Big target, not a flashy receiver but gets off the LOS well. Will not stretch the field but gets open, comes back to the ball to help his QB and is a better blocker than it would appear from his size.

2011 1st (from OAK) Cabe Carimi, OT. At 6-7, 325 and 4.97 Carimi could be the first T taken. Hopefully we will be in the top 5 to land him. Would take over at LT moving Vollmer over to RT

2011 1st NE Jerrell Powe NT 6-2, 340.

2011 2nd Daniel Thomas RB Kansas State. Here's our smash mouth runner. 6-2, 227, 4.57

Hard to pick on much here, bro. A very good analysis of the major needs and possible ways to fill them.

Just a couple things:

I think John Jerry is likely to yield better value than Asamoah.

I doubt if Carimi will turn out to have the elite feet to be a Top 5 pick, and I don't think his long-term potential is better than Vollmer's as an LOT candidate. PLUS, I want that future franchise QB (Gabbert, Locker, Johnson or Mallett) with that Raiders' pick.

The rest of it all makes perfect sense to me.

WELL DONE!